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A Hot Greenwich Housing Market with Some Cool Sections; 31 Open Houses Today

The under $2 million Greenwich market is hot ; the $3 million-plus market is improving; there are more houses in the $10 million-plus range than in the under $1 million range.

 

These two charts show the bifurcated market that we are in. As you can see from inventory chart about 30% of our inventory is under $2 million, but when you look at the same price range on the sales chart going clockwise you can see that almost three quarters of our sales are in this same price range. Now if you look at the same two charts going counter-clockwise (or anti-clockwise for my client from the U.K.) you can see that you have to go more than half way around  the inventory pie just to get down to the $3 million line. Do the same thing on the sales pie and you don’t have to go even a quarter way around the pie to get to the $3 million line i.e. the percent of sales over $3 million in March is only a third of the percent of inventory.

The result of this mismatch of sales and inventory is a sub-$1.5 million market with multiple bids and days on markets that can be in the single digits before they go to contract. At the other end of the spectrum we have 42 houses over $10 million that are waiting for buyers, many of these listings have been waiting for over a year. If you look at the sales chart for over $10 million you won’t find any pie slice at all because we are still waiting for a sale of an over $10 million house in 2013 despite the fact that this price bracket is 9% of our market.

[For a more detailed discussion of the over $5 million real estate market see last week’s article Greenwich Over $5M, and Particularly Over $8M, Real Estate Sales in 1st Quarter Doldrums.]

As you can see from the contract pie chart we do have one pending sale over $10 million which equates to several years of supply. In total we have 146 accepted offers, contingent contracts and non-contingent contracts as of the beginning of April. The nice thing is the $2 – 3 million range has 25 pending contracts even though we have only had 14 sales in this price bracket so far this year. The percent of contracts under $2 million is even greater than percent of sales under $2 million so the lower end of the market is only getting hotter.

 

March '13

Inventory

Contracts

Mar. Solds

Total

YTD Solds

 YTD+Ks

Mos Supply

Mos w/ Ks

Instaneous Mos

< $600K

12

11

2

13

6

17

6.0

3.2

6.0

$600-$800K

19

13

4

17

10

23

5.7

3.7

4.8

$800K-$1M

13

11

1

12

6

17

6.5

3.4

13.0

$1-$1.5M

40

35

6

41

17

52

7.1

3.5

6.7

$1.5-$2M

58

22

8

30

15

37

11.6

7.1

7.3

$2-$3M

85

25

4

29

14

39

18.2

9.8

21.3

$3-$4M

75

12

1

13

7

19

32.1

17.8

75.0

$4-$5M

40

6

2

8

6

12

20.0

15.0

20.0

$5-7.5M

62

7

2

9

8

15

23.3

18.6

31.0

$7.5-$10M

28

3

1

4

1

4

84.0

31.5

28.0

> $10M

42

1

0

1

0

1


189.0












TOTAL

474

146

31

177

90

236

15.8

9.0

15.3

 

The good thing is that even though the under $2 million dollar market is getting even hotter, the pending contracts show that all the price ranges are getting tighter as months of supply come down. Our 146 pending contracts are almost five times the 31 sales in March as reported by the Greenwich MLS.  We are still short of inventory with only 474 single-family home listings. We only have 12 houses under $600,000 and a total of 44 under $1 million. (For an analysis of the house and condo market’s check out Jared Randal’s blog.) The other thing you will notice about the months of supply beside the improving market is that we are missing the over $10 million market segment bars, because you can’t calculate months of supply with no sales.

Overall the first quarter of 2013 was a little below average. Sales under $2 million were supply constrained and sales over $3 million were demand constrained. Barring a huge influx of new listings all price ranges should be getting better as the contracts move to sales. This time next year buyers will be looking back wishing they had bought before prices and interest rates rose. At the lower end make sure you have your ducks in a row, over $3 million you have some real opportunities. For seller properly priced houses sell even at the higher price ranges.

GREENWICHSTREETS.COM OPEN HOUSES LIST, INTERACTIVE MAP AND PHOTOS FOR SUNDAY 4/7/13

This Sunday we have 31 open houses in all parts of the town and all price ranges.

 

The open house list and the interactive map are courtesy of Rob Pulitano.  The hot links are courtesy of Jared Randall.

 

Address

Town

List Price

Time

Broker

47 Valley Rd  #B1 

Cos Cob

$399K

1-3 PM

Prudential

193 Putnam Park #193 

Greenwich

$480K

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

4 Lafayette Court #2B

Greenwich

$530K

1-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

98 Riverdale Ext.

Greenwich

$625K

1-4 PM

Prudential

4 Hunt Terrace

Greenwich

$749K

1-4 PM

Prudential

75 Richland Road #B

Greenwich

$750K

1-4 PM

Prudential

80 Silo Circle

Riverside

$899K

2-4 PM

Weichert

17 Ronald Lane

Cos Cob

$935K

2-4 PM

Raveis

35 E Lyon Farm Drive #35

Greenwich

$1.195M

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

15 Bishop Dr North

Greenwich

$1.275M

1-4 PM

Prudential

21 Shore Acre Drive

Old Greenwich

$1.275M

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

19 Dickinson Road

Stamford

$1.35M

1-3 PM

Prudential

2 Horseshoe Road

Cos Cob

$1.385M

2-4 PM

Sotheby's

631 Long Ridge Road #12

Stamford

$1.395M

1-4 PM

Prudential

3 Fairfield Avenue

Old Greenwich

$1.48M

1-3 PM

Raveis

48 Orchard Street

Cos Cob

$1.695M

1-4 PM

Prudential

57 Hillside Drive

Greenwich

$1.895M

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

5 Dorchester Lane

Riverside

$2.095M

1-3 PM

Prudential

17 Candlelight Place

Greenwich

$2.295M

1-4 PM

Prudential

30 Montgomery Lane

Greenwich

$2.35M

1-4 PM

Prudential

83 Burning Tree Road

Greenwich

$2.7M

1-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

16 Lakeview Drive

Riverside

$2.995M

1-4 PM

Prudential

76 Cat Rock Road

Cos Cob

$3.295M

1-3 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

3 Cherry Blossom Lane

Greenwich

$4.295M

11-1 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

29 Byfield Lane

Greenwich

$4.3M

1-3 PM

Raveis

585 Round Hill Road

Greenwich

$4.495M

1-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

45 Close Road

Greenwich

$4.595M

1-4 PM

Sotheby's

613 Steamboat Road

Greenwich

$4.6M

2-4 PM

Ogilvy

30 Oneida Drive

Greenwich

$4.7M

2-4 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

487 North Street

Greenwich

$5.495M

3-5 PM

Coldwell Bnkr

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