Community Corner
Was It A Gangbuster Year? The Numbers May just Say 'Yes'
Spring Market is Here Early ** Even More Listings Needed **
This week we have 24 open houses. You can see the interactive map here and instructions for it use at GreenwichStreets.com. The spring market is starting early as the economy rebounds so it is a good time to get out and see some open houses.
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GREENWICH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT
Now that all the sales numbers are in for December 2012, it turns out not only to be a record setting December, but astoundingly, the month with the highest sales for the entire year. You only have to look at this chart to see this how out of the ordinary December 2012 was.
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2012 started out as a slow year and didn’t really start doing better until May. After May 2012 sales (red line) stayed above average (grey line) for the rest of the year, Then we got to December and people were rushing to close sales to avoid the 2013 tax increases.
2012 Second Half is a Good Year Even Compared to Boom Year of 2007
In 2012 we had 659 single-family homes sold compared to 573 sales in all of 2011 an increase of 15%, but if you want to see how amazing the second half of 2012 was compare it to the boom year of 2007 when we had a total 726 homes sold.
As you can see by the graph 2012 sales start to match the 2007 boom year around July and stay close until we get to December when sales just explode. Just how astounding December 2012 was wasn’t fully apparent until the final sales from the Greenwich Town Clerk’s office were reported. December 2012 may also hold the record for most sales outside the GMLS as several sellers approached savvy investors directly who snapped up groups of homes in private transactions.
Spring Market is Underway, Sales Doing Better Than Expected
You would expect that with lots of people trying to accelerate sales into 2012, that January would be a slow month. That’s what happened in July 2011 when the 0.25% increase in the Connecticut conveyance tax kicked in (see the dark green line in the first chart). June 2011 was an all time record for sales in one month, followed by a below average July 2011. But check out that diamond in the lower right corner of the chart, it represents 25 homes sold so far in January 2013 when last year we had 33 sales.
Not only are sales looking better than expected, but so far this month’s contracts and new listings are looking good, Inventory however, is still very low.
Category
Single Family Homes
Condos
Totals
Accepted Offers/Contingent Contracts
24
10
34
Executed Contracts
17
6
23
Solds
25
9
34
Total Off Market This Month
66
25
91
New Listings
59
25
84
Inventory
410
118
528
In addition to the 66 houses that either went to contract or were sold this month, we have an additional 34 contracts carried over from 2012 waiting to close or 100 houses that recently gone off the market.
Bonuses Down but Total Bonus Compensation Up
Lately, there have been many stories about how Wall Street bonuses are down this year, that fewer people will be getting bonuses and even stories of layoffs. The result is supposed to impact the high end of the Greenwich housing market, but that is pre-Great Recession thinking.
Bonuses may be down, but 2013 is the first year that most bonus recipients will be getting all three layers of their bonus. These potential buyers are not only getting these smaller 2012 bonuses, but the deferred compensation from their 2011 bonuses and heir 2010 bonuses. So focusing on what traders are getting for only in this year’s bonus package ignores 2/3rds or more of their bonus compensation for this year.
You can see how this one year bonus mentality has changed by simply looking at the purchases in December 2012. Sellers of highly appreciated properties had a financial motive to sell in 2012, but where did the fuel come for the buyers to drive their purchases. It came from the three and even four layers of compensation that the buyers are receiving from this and past years.
From the real estate view point the even nicer thing is recipients knew, subject to some stock fluctuations, what they would be getting. The past years’ compensation had already been awarded, it was just deferred. The result is that many financial industry buyers could shrug off worries about the size of this year’s bonus and move ahead with the dozens of high end purchases we saw in December.
GREENWICH OPEN HOUSE LIST FOR SUNDAY, JAN. 27, 2013
The open house list and the interactive map is courtesy of Rob Pulitano and the hot links are courtesy of Jared Randall.
Address
Greenwich
$1.195M
1-3 PM
Raveis
Greenwich
$1.298M
1:30-3:30 PM
Round Hill
Greenwich
$1.395M
1-4 PM
Round Hill
Greenwich
$1.399M
1-3 PM
Higgins
Greenwich
$1.625M
2-4 PM
Raveis
Old Greenwich
$1.799M
1-4 PM
Prudential
Greenwich
$2.195M
2-4 PM
Raveis
Old Greenwich
$3.145M
1-3 PM
Shore and Country
Greenwich
$3.195M
1-3 PM
Raveis
Old Greenwich
$3.375M
1-3 PM
Shore and Country
