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A Couple of VERY Mild Days Before Temperatures Come Crashing Down Again!

Mild Thursday and Friday!

 

Good Morning,

The round of rain and snow that has managed to move through the Tri-State Area hasn't left very much behind during the night... In fact, the total liquid equivalent in Central Park (0.03") was about one-third the amount that the European global model was suggesting at this time yesterday, and both the G.F.S. and the N.A.M./W.R.F. (domestic models) were showing as much as half an inch!!! Therefore, the snowfall amounts were, by and large, lesser than anticipated...

With clouds breaking for a decent amount of sunshine today, temperatures should get a decent bump, and most will be in the middle or upper 40s this afternoon... There should be no issues tonight... Under a partly cloudy sky, most temperatures will be in the 30s, except the 20s in the normally colder spots...

Tomorrow, a westerly wind and some sunshine will be able to push most temperatures to levels within a couple of degrees of 50... That wind should become southwesterly, and as a ridge of high pressure begins to move off the East Coast tomorrow night, we then will have a new feature to watch...

While there has been lots of 'speculation' about whether or not there would be a significant East Coast storm during the upcoming weekend, the global models have all be fairly consistent in showing that there won't be any phasing occurring between the two branches of the jet stream, which would allow this to happen...

But, what we're noticing this morning is, a fairly potent upper air disturbance is being forecasted to move through the base of a trough... The 'dip in the jet stream', or the axis of the trough, is forecasted to be near or just west of the Appalachians on Friday night and early Saturday morning... And, this ripple of energy moving through it will have the potential to spread some snow northward along the I-81 and I-95 corridor late on Friday night...

In many coastal communities, as well as in some of the larger cities, this period of snow could last into early Saturday morning before tapering to some flurries -- or just ending... The 00z run of the ECMWF does print out 0.20" of liquid to New York City between 1 a.m. and 1 p.m. on Saturday, so we'll need to keep an eye on this... As for the 'phasing' idea, this chunk of energy represents what will add the energy necessary to do this -- only, by the time it happens, that low pressure system will be located near the Canadian Maritime provinces on Sunday...

Colder air is still expected to arrive this weekend (which could be accompanied by some snow and increasing winds on Saturday), and temperatures Sunday will be hard-pressed to get out of the lower 30s...

Presidents Day should not be quite as cold, and it will probably be fairly sunny.

Have a good day!!!

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