A Great Start to the Week, But Rain & Wind is on the Way!

Good Morning,

Today will provide us with a fairly bright start to the work week, but then we aren't really expecting to see a whole lot of the sun starting tomorrow and lasting through Friday...

A ridge of high pressure is currently the dominant feature most of the eastern half of the country, now that a wave of low pressure that produced between 5 and 10 inches of snow across portions of southern New Hampshire and in northern Massachusetts has begun to drift out into the Atlantic...

Most temperatures will reach the mid and upper 40s today, although it wouldn't surprise us at all if it reached the lower 50s on some thermometers...

Meanwhile, the second major snow and ice storm in as many weeks will be unleashing its wrath on the central Plains today... While parts of Kansas and Oklahoma will probably not see as much snow as they did late last week, travel in much of this area of the country will be slowed down to a crawl... And, there'll be a widespread area of strong and severe thunderstorms spreading out along the Gulf Coast, which will eventually be shifting into other parts of the Southeast later tonight and tomorrow morning...

Therefore, the high pressure system will ensure dry weather across the Northeast and in most of the mid Atlantic states through at least early tomorrow afternoon... In fact, much of New York State and New England will probably stay dry until very late tomorrow afternoon or early tomorrow night...

The large area of low pressure that will be moving across northern Texas and Oklahoma today is forecasted to reach western portions of the Ohio Valley later tomorrow, and there will be a swath of snow spreading out across much of the Midwest tomorrow as a result... Cities like Chicago and Detroit could get as much as 6 inches of snow out of this system, before a secondary wave begins to develop near a "triple point" (or the junction of a warm front, a cold front and an occluded front) on Wednesday near the mid Atlantic coast...

That, of course, has bigger implications for our local forecasts for tomorrow night and Wednesday... The prevailing thoughts now are that, while most of tomorrow will be cloudy, rain should hold off in cities like Baltimore and D.C. until midday, then in eastern Pennsylvania and across South Jersey until early in the afternoon and in the New York City Metro Area until 5 p.m. — most of the I-95 corridor will be getting soaked tomorrow night, and the rain should gradually taper off (from west to east) on Wednesday morning...

There will be some higher elevations (such as the Poconos and Catskills) which will have the rain mix with, or even change completely over to snow and sleet for a few hours late tomorrow night... Depending upon which model you believe, this may result in as many as a few inches of snow and ice, with the European being the 'most bullish' in calling for this...

When the steadiest precipitation comes to an end on Wednesday, and it pivots into New England, there will be plenty of clouds left behind... None of the models indicate any kind of massive clearing trend unfolding on Wednesday afternoon... Therefore, we shouldn't be promising too much in the way of sunshine... Most temperatures, however, will be above the seasonal averages — because the core of the coldest air that will be located in the Great Lakes region tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night will be following the primary wave of low pressure on its way into eastern Canada during midweek...

Nonetheless, a very large upper-level low pressure system aloft, or a 'an upper-level circulation which is cut off from the rest of the jet stream flow' is still going to be in close enough proximity to the region on Thursday to bring lots of clouds and the chance for a couple of widely separated showers...

By and large, the pool of colder air aloft will promote some instability, so any sun that we see (possibly even on Friday) will just cause clouds to quickly blossom, and showers will also pop up in some places... The unsettled pattern may start to loosen its grip on the Tri-State Area in time for the upcoming weekend...

Have a good day!!!