A nice beginning to the work week as high pressure builds in from the south, promoting a good deal of sunshine and above average temperatures for mid/late October. Comfortable temperatures will be had during the overnight hours with breezy conditions early on and clouds slowly streaming in.
Frontogenesis is expected tonight into Tuesday as high pressure over Hudson Bay noses southeastward and a weak disturbance embedded in the westerly flow aloft passes across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This should yield an increase in cloud cover and a few showers across the area, particularly for the Hudson Valley and into Connecticut where the front is most likely to set up. Temperatures will remain relatively warm, however, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the north to around 70 south of the City.
On Wednesday an upper-level disturbance will slide across the region early in the day, and with a frontal boundary somewhere in the vicinity we will likely have to contend with a couple of showers during the morning hours to the north, but for now we'll keep the forecast dry for the City itself. This could change, but PoPs are low enough to justify maintaining continuity. Confidence is lower than normal, however.
By Thursday the upper-level weather pattern will amplify with a trough digging into the Plains and ridging along the East Coast. High pressure will take hold over New England and push the frontal boundary we've been discussing to the south, allowing for more of a marine influence over our area. As such, we've brought temperatures down several degrees with the easterly flow in place and more in the way in clouds than what we were previously portraying.
A bit warmer on Friday as the high slides eastward, the front comes back northward and through the region, and the flow turns more southwesterly. Hard to say what happens for this upcoming weekend, but we'll have to keep an eye on a tropical feature currently taking shape in the Caribbean as it may become a factor by Sunday. Some guidance indicates that a major storm results from the interaction of "Sandy" with a strong trough Sunday into early next week... could we see a replay of the "Perfect Storm"?
Have a great day!