Good Morning,
The temperature managed to reach the mid and upper-80s across much of the CT Coast yesterday ... But, as a ridge of high pressure located in the Great Lakes region started to usher in some much drier air in the afternoon, it certainly felt much better than it did on Sunday, if you had to be outdoors for a prolonged period of time...
On this morning's current weather map, a bubble of high pressure is now located over western and central Pennsylvania... This should sustain the relatively dry air today across Fairfield County, and it'll be fairly sunny... Most temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon...
The old front that pushed across the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states Sunday afternoon and night is now located near the Virginia/North Carolina state line...
This front, now more or less stationary, has been the focal point of showers and heavier thunderstorms well to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line... Meanwhile, there's also evidence on the radar mosaic early this morning that another front is beginning to press into the northern Great Lakes -- since showers and thunderstorms have flared up over Lake Superior and in Michigan's Upper Peninsula...
With each of these fronts located both well to the north and to the south of our area today and tonight, no outbreak of showers and/or thunderstorms is expected around here...
However, while the ridge of high pressure will still be pretty much 'in control' today, its tendency to weaken tomorrow will make for some interesting forecasting challenges... This ridge of high pressure will become what we often call "dirtier"... This is because over time, the breaking down of a high pressure system includes an influx of clouds and increasingly moist air...
The wind tomorrow will be light and southwesterly, allowing some of that moisture to start creeping in... And, this is also obviously an ingredient which helps a couple of showers and thunderstorms form...
But last night's run of the various global models didn't really provide any compelling evidence that the area will be covered by numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow or tomorrow night...
Instead, some spotty shower and thunderstorm activity may develop tomorrow afternoon, especially over some of the higher terrain of northeastern Pennsylvania, in northwestern New Jersey and across southeastern New York State not a worry for the Greenwich area...
Also, taking a look at the 'southern exposure', there may be a couple of thunderstorms that can develop tomorrow afternoon and evening over the Delmarva Peninsula, or in South Jersey...
The National Weather Service has been covering for this potential activity with a either 20 or 30 percent probability of precipitation--but the 00z model data suggests this chance is closer to 10 or 15 percent...
It is perhaps best that we just mention the chance of a shower or thunderstorm, primarily in areas located north and west of the City, later tomorrow or early tomorrow night at this juncture --
however, we really want to drive home the point that a few showers and thunderstorms will be even more likely later on Thursday, Thursday night and especially on Friday...
As we move through the second half of this workweek, not only will there be a more plentiful supply of moisture available, but also a fairly deep trough of low pressure (a "dip in the jet stream") will be digging into the Eastern Region...
This upper-level feature will be pushing our next surface front towards the East Coast and Fairfield County on Friday... Also, A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE will probably be forming along it somewhere in the Ohio Valley on Thursday night or Friday morning...
So, we shouldn't really dwell too much on the possibility of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm tomorrow, but instead be 'playing up' the likelihood of more widespread showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the week... And with fairly widespread cloud cover on both Thursday and Friday, most temperatures should be no higher than the 80s both days...
Have a good day !!!
