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Health & Fitness

A Quiet Ride For Four Days, Then A Big End To Winter On The Way!

It's still an astronomical winter.

 

Good Morning,

As we begin the month of March today, a new season has begun on the meteorological calendar (to simplify record-keeping, the full calendar months of March, April and May are used)...

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However, as we'll probably find out here during the next 10 of 15 days, "astronomical winter" is still in control!!!

A few widely separated showers, which have stubborn and persistent on eastern Long Island, have finally come to an end early this morning... And with a light, northwesterly wind — the sky has either partially or fully cleared in most of the Tri-State Area (fewer clouds can be found to the south and the west)...

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Temperatures are mostly in the 30s this morning, and there should be some recovery occurring later today... Most afternoon highs will either be in the mid or upper 40s... Then for tonight, under a partly cloudy sky, most of the bigger cities will be in the lower 30s, while outlying areas should wind up in the 20s...

There'll be some sunshine early tomorrow, but it will tend to give way to more clouds as the day wears on... The rationale for this is, because there will still be a very strong upper-level low pressure system located in the North Atlantic, a trough axis behind swinging into the area from the north and west behind it later tomorrow on and tomorrow night will promote more in the way of clouds... We can't even rule out some sprinkles and flurries before the day is through, but only one of the models (the NAM) is printing out anything around here, and that occurs early tomorrow night...

We've been talking for the past couple of days about how there will be a progressively chillier trend unfolding this weekend and early next week, and this still seems to be the case... Most temperatures will wind up in the upper 30s in the typically colder spots and the lower 40s elsewhere on both Sunday and Monday...Each day will offer clouds as well as some sunshine, but it is also going to be dry...

The chilly, but tranquil pattern to start the new work week will lead up to what could be a major storm for much of the Eastern Region during the middle of next week... While all of the global models are in agreement that there will be a wave of low pressure developing over the southern tier of states, the solutions between the primary domestic form of model guidance (the G.F.S.) and the European and Canadian/GGEM differ quite a bit...

The G.F.S. is showing the "main feature" consolidating over the Carolinas next Wednesday morning before heading out to sea... While there is some precipitation in its forecast for the I-95 corridor all the way up into New England, this can be attributed to either a cold front moving into the area from the Great Lakes, or possibly an 'inverted trough' of low pressure setting up along the Eastern Seaboard...

Conversely, the other models are showing this storm forming father to the north (near the Delmarva Peninsula), and intensifying while it slowly meanders off the mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night and early Thursday...

Therefore, while it is still way too early to tell what will happen, we must still allude to the idea that a large storm could have impacts on our weather during midweek... Even timing details aren't "etched in stone" just yet, because if there is some sort of northern branch feature (like a cold front) that pushes in from the north and west, we may see a little rain or snow as early as late Tuesday night...

But, the solution that would imply there's a bigger storm to contend with indicates that most of the precipitation will take place from later on Wednesday, or Wednesdays night into Thursday...

Have a good weekend!!!

 

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