Big Melt on the Way; Interesting Weather Pattern Into the Weekend!

Good Morning,

On this, the 30th anniversary of the "Blizzard of '83", much of the Northeast is still recovering from a tremendous storm that started to wind down a little less than 48 hours ago... But, as the old saying goes: "There's no rest for the weary", and while some secondary roads and side streets in those areas that were hit by more than two feet of snow remain slippery, today will be bringing a brand new threat to it and much of the Tri-State Area...

Some sleet and rain that will freeze on some surfaces when it makes contact with a pretty cold ground will cause some potentially hazardous travel early today...

The regional radar mosaic early this morning is showing rain associated with a warm front pressing eastward through the mid-Atlantic states and into the Northeast... There already has been some ice in parts of Maryland, as well as in western and central Pennsylvania... And, even though air temperatures above 1,500 feet will be rising rapidly in this morning's scenario, those beneath it (essentially, close to ground level) will not be able to warm up nearly as quickly...

So, the National Weather Service has posted a series of freezing rain advisories early today... Many of them run from 3 a.m. until 9 or 10 a.m. The most important "take away point" obviously, since these advisories may be extended for a period of at least two or three hours, is that pockets of freezing rain during the first of today, no matter how light they may be, could lead to some very slippery walking and driving conditions, so please be careful!!

While we anxiously await the arrival of milder air, we must at least consider the possibility that our maximum temperatures during the next 24 hours may actually occur near or shortly after nightfall... This afternoon, many temperatures in the City and many adjacent suburbs should climb into the mid and upper 40s, but there will be occasional rain, some drizzle and patches fog...

Also, Long Island and coastal Connecticut may lag several degrees behind the rest of the Tri-State Area, simply because of the depth of their snow cover... Once today's rain comes to an end very late today from west to east (and, after depositing about 0.25 to 0.50 inch), there should be a gusty wind out of the west developing tonight behind a cold front...

There'll be at least some clearing, and the wind overnight should prevent the temperature from falling below 30 in most places...

Tomorrow, while it should be a bit windy, there will also be some sun, and afternoon temperatures should manage to reach the lower or middle 40s...

Looking ahead to later this week, it will definitely be a challenge to determine whether or not the subtropical (or 'southern') branch of the polar jet stream will be bringing with it some additional opportunities to get some snow, ice and rain...

For example, one wave of low pressure is being forecasted by last evening's run G.F.S. to move out of the Carolinas late on Wednesday afternoon and pass through Virginia and Maryland later on Wednesday night and early Thursday morning...

Assuming this solution is correct, temperatures from central and southern New Jersey southwestward into northern Virginia should be in a 'marginal' range that would support a period of snow, probably between 11 p.m. or midnight and 6 a.m. on Thursday... Conversely, the European global forecast model, which turned out a superior performance last week in handling what turned out to be the massive blizzard, keeps nearly all of the precipitation well to the SOUTH of the Potomac River... Simply put, the European's forecast shows the storm moving along a path which is about 125 or 150 miles farther south than that of the G.F.S. — and the lowest central pressure is not as deep on the European...

Either way, these solutions would imply that New York City, much of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New England would encounter very little precipitation (probably in the form of snow) from this system...

We'll continue to watch model trends very closely, because what could be nothing more than a fresh coating or flurries could turn into a few inches, "if" everything were to fall into place, and there was more of a shift to the north in future runs...

After that, we will be turning the focus of our attention to Friday night and Saturday... These time periods will need to be watched closely as well... From the looks of the current models, a vigorous impulse of energy in the northern Plains states on Thursday morning will glide across the Great Lakes and into Quebec by Friday evening...

After that, the G.F.S. starts to develop a new wave of low pressure near the Carolina coast on Saturday afternoon... The latest run of the European doesn't show a low pressure system on its 7 a.m. surface map over the mid Atlantic states like it did during yesterday's mid morning run... But, even if the two branches of the jet are not yet showing signs of 'phasing' over the Eastern U.S. Friday night or on Saturday, who is to say that future solutions won't???

So, to summarize, while temperatures should be trending a little higher during the first half of the week, we will need to keep abreast of potential troublesome time periods late on Wednesday night into early Thursday, and then again between Friday night and Saturday.

Have a good day!!!