Big Storm on the Way! Over A Foot of Snow Possible With Blizzard Conditions!

Good Morning,

As a ridge of high pressure centered over eastern Canada continues to nudge its way southeastward, there is a plentiful supply of dry air, and the sky during the night has been mainly clear... Temperatures will be starting out mostly in the teens in the normally colder spots and the 20s in most of the bigger cities and towns, but at least the wind should be relatively light all day...

Temperatures this afternoon will be mainly in the 30s, and many just barely above the freezing mark... There'll be a tendency for some high, thin clouds to reach the area before the day is through, and then these clouds will start to lower and thicken tonight... Because of this, the temperature should not drop all that much—but when it does, it will do so EARLY...

Most places will then have steady or slowly rising temperatures after midnight... The leading edge of some warmer air aloft is bound to cause a bit of snow (or even rain) somewhere very early tomorrow morning... But, we think that the vast majority of the precipitation which is headed our way during the next 48 hours will be occurring tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night...

There are going to be 'two, key players' involved in this upcoming winter storm scenario... And, it appears that exactly when these two, separate entities begin to phase, and the energy associated with a low pressure system located in the Great Lakes gets dished off to a secondary developing off the mid Atlantic coast, will be critical in determining just how much snow will occur...

Last night's run of the 00z G.F.S. is still going with the concept that there'll be a "void" located in between these two waves of low pressure tomorrow afternoon—and it aligns with the I-95 corridor between Washington, D.C. and southern New England...

But, the European is still the global model that is insisting that the distribution of precipitation, albeit light in the beginning, will become much more intense by early tomorrow night... Because those places which are located both near and to the north and west of the storm's track will see the heaviest precipitation occur once the storm deepens dramatically, these will be the places which get the most snow...

Eastern and possibly central Long Island, as well all of southern and eastern New England will fit into that category... So, who would be in the "rip-off" zone? (or, who may see less than 3 inches?) Probably in southwestern portions of New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania and northern Delaware...

In Maryland and across Virginia, the precipitation will probably end tomorrow afternoon before any changeover to snow can take place... But, as this storm reaches its peak intensity, blizzard conditions are expected across Rhode Island and in eastern Massachusetts... Winds will be gusting to between 45 and 55 mph early tomorrow night, especially north and east of a line which extends from Philadelphia on over to Long Beach Island at the Jersey Shore...

Our maps show New York City located "very close to the six-inch" accumulation line, with almost all of Long Island in the 6- to 12-inch category as well as Fairfield County in CT and New Haven on East where blizzard conditions will take place Friday evening and early Saturday morning.

There also could be moderate to significant coastal flooding at the time of high time Friday evening and again Saturday morning in Long Island Sound, Jersey Shore, and Long Island...

There could be locally higher amounts of snow, especially in Suffolk County, if the snow were to fall at a rate of 2 inches per hour for a few hours tomorrow evening... Nearly all of northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley fall under the 3-6 inch category, and there'll be quite a gradient / big drop-off as you head farther south and west...

The snow will probably linger into early Saturday morning in at least the eastern half of the Tri-State area, from Greenwich and Stamford, eastward to New Haven on to Rhode Island, but the wind will still be very gusty throughout the day...

Temperatures will be no higher than the mid 30s, so it is going to a few days for the snow to melt—and a lot of it will when the temperature climbs well into the 40s next week.

Have a good day!!!