Today: Sunshine, Brisk, and Chilly High: 46
Tonight: Cloudy and Cold Low: 38 City 28 Suburbs
Tomorrow: Cloudy, Becoming Windy and Rainy High: 43 Rain Mixed With Snow Late in the Day
Good Morning,
This Election Day is getting off to a relatively clear and cold start, with most temperatures in the 30s in the big cities and the 20s in most outlying areas... High pressure is currently spreading out across southeastern Canada and the Northeast's interior, and the ridge is pressing southward along the spine of the Appalachians... So, even though much of the attention is being paid to a major coastal storm, which we'll talk about in a moment, we can't overlook the fact that there should be a fair amount of sunshine on this -- a critical Election Day... It will be very chilly, with most temperatures no higher than the 40s this afternoon... The coastal storm is starting to take shape along the Gulf Coast as of this writing, not very far from Florida's Panhandle... It is expected to jump to a position off the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon, and then it should be located east of Cape Hatteras late tonight/early tomorrow morning... This system has been showing up on the models since late last week, and it has been talked about ever since the damage that was left behind by "Sandy" was fully assessed...
We CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO DOWNPLAY the effects that this Nor'easter will have on many coastal communities, because they have been left very vulnerable in the wake of "Sandy"... Many protective dunes have been washed away, and there are also still countless people in the Tri-State Area that are without power... But, if there's one positive thing to take away from the past 24 hours that is worth pointing out, it is that the global models have been TRENDING FARTHER EAST with the eventual path, or future track of this storm... The process got started with yesterday's 12z and 18z runs of some domestic models, including the G.F.S. -- and now the latest run of the European, which rolled in between 1 and 2 a.m. today (this is the same model that correctly predicted many aspects of "Sandy", and it also had the best handle on the storm track from several days out) is also "on board" in calling for this eastward shift... In many cases, 75-150 miles can make a huge difference when it comes to either forecasting the worst-case scenario for many coastal towns, and even the big cities located near the I-95 corridor, or expecting a storm to have lesser impact...
So, we want to make it abundantly clear that tomorrow will still bring deteriorating weather - and an area of rain will spread from southwest to northeast during the morning, probably starting in the City after the morning rush is over... Then, during the late-afternoon and early nighttime hours, rain and wind will be lashing out at much of the Tri-State Area, with peak wind gusts reaching 45 or 50 mph in and near the City, and 55-60 mph along the South Shore of Long Island, in coastal Connecticut and at the Jersey Shore. The Rain will also be mixing with wet snow.
During the high tide cycle tomorrow night, the water levels will be running 3-5 feet above normal, which will cause some coastal flooding... There's also ONE OTHER ASPECT of the latest model data which we must address --> rainfall amounts are expected to be much lesser than previously thought, averaging close to 0.50" in the City, less than 0.50" in the northern and western suburbs and 0.50 to 1.00" in those coastal communities that will be in the closest proximity to the storm's center of circulation... This cuts the expected rainfall by a factor of three along the immediate coast, and almost "in half" farther inland... Actually, if you were to buy the solution of the G.F.S. -- the City would only get about two-tenths of an inch of rain...
Temperatures will be no higher than the lower or middle 40s tomorrow, and should wind up mostly in the 30s tomorrow night... This, of course, brings up "the other big question" about whether or not the precipitation will either mix with or completely change over to snow before it ends, especially in most of the City's distant northern and western suburbs... Well, the "game-changer" now is that, while it may be cold enough for the precipitation to end as snow late tomorrow night, the MOISTURE may be lacking...
Therefore, we certainly don't want to predict anything more than a slushy coating of snow, and that would be confined to areas near and to the north and west of I-287...
On Thursday, with this storm reaching a position near Cape Cod early in the morning, whatever leftover clouds and possible showers there are during the morning should manage to break for some midday and afternoon sunshine... Temperatures will probably be no higher than the 40s, and there will be a brisk, northwesterly wind...
The weather is looking much nicer for Friday and Saturday, as high pressure re-establishes itself in the East and temperatures start a significant rise...
Have a good day!!!
