Cold and Snowy As We Hit the Midpoint of Winter!

Good Morning,

The past weekend has provided us with some undeniable evidence that we're in the midst of a truly "wintry" weather pattern right now… And, while the doses of snow that have been occurring in the mid Atlantic states and Northeast are (and will continue to be) mostly on the 'light side', a series of impulses of energy cascading through a large low pressure trough which has been carved out by the jet stream will keep this unsettled pattern going for a couple more days…

First, let’s do a little 'look back' on what has happened since Friday morning… There was a fast-moving and relatively weak wave of low pressure located in the Ohio Valley on Thursday night, and it suddenly became energized on Friday morning as it reached the Delmarva Peninsula…

This low pressure system intensified even more when it was located over the open waters of the ocean, but it still strengthened enough to produce more than 5 inches of snow in parts of Cape May County in extreme South Jersey, as well as in coastal Delaware… The activity ended on Friday afternoon, and then the region had a period of cold and dry weather which lasted for a little more than 24 hours (in most cases)… But, another disturbance came along and caused an uptick in snow late Saturday night and early yesterday morning…

While this wasn't as "robust" of a system as its predecessor, there was still quite a bit of cloud cover yesterday, and most temperatures were no higher than the lower 30s… Another outbreak of snow showers and flurries last night brought a fresh coating to as much as an inch in the Greater Philadelphia Area and much of South Jersey…

That brings us to the present day: the sky early this morning has averaged partly cloudy, and there has been a brisk wind out of the west and northwest, averaging 10-20 mph… This will make temperatures mostly in the mid and upper 20s "feel more like" its in the teens…

So, even when there aren't flurries or snow showers occurring, the presence of this cold air still reminds us that we're only near the midpoint of winter… We should see some sun for a while today, but it'll begin to fade behind increasing and thickening clouds, and temperatures should be mostly in the lower and middle 30s…

Tonight, a brand new "Clipper" type of disturbance will emerge in the mid Atlantic states… It'll cause snow to spread out across much of central Pennsylvania and western Maryland this evening… After that, it will spread into much of eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m., and then finally southeastern New York and southern New England (probably after 3 or 4 a.m. tomorrow morning)… The amounts are going to be light, and there'll be many more places which will get a fresh coating than those that will get a full inch —but this still could cause us a few headaches during the morning rush tomorrow…

The snow will end rapidly from west to east, generally between the hours of 6 and 10 a.m. and clouds will probably break for some sunshine tomorrow, especially in the afternoon… Look for temperatures to return to the 30s throughout the region…

Yet another "Clipper" type disturbance will be sliding across the area late tomorrow night and early on Wednesday morning… And, while the global models seems to be in agreement that a little more snow will be distributed in areas 50-100 miles farther NORTH than its predecessor, the most likely area which will be targeted will include Philadelphia, New York City and many of the suburbs of both of these cities… Another round of 'late-night into early morning' snow can deposit a fresh coating to an inch or two before another break in the action, and temperatures will probably climb a bit more in the afternoon—reaching the upper 30s to around 40 degrees…

The ONE DAY all week that we'll probably encounter dry weather, both during the day and at night, will be Thursday.. Temperatures, for the most part, will be in the upper 30s to around 40… The end of the workweek could be quite interesting, because there's at least one global model out there (the European version) that shows a storm in the southern tier of states suddenly intensifying on Friday once it reaches the mid Atlantic coast…

And, while all of the details are 'sketchy' at this point, and there is a possibility that this late-week storm could generate some rain as well as snow in the Eastern Region, we should be mindful of the fact that a sloppy mixture of rain and snow could impact the region on Friday…

The G.F.S. is not nearly as "bullish" with this storm, because it hasn't really embraced the idea that there will be some 'phasing' between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream… So, it'll be interesting to see how this plays itself out…

Have a good day!!!