Good Morning,
A ridge of high pressure located near the mid Atlantic coast early this morning has promoted a generally clear sky during the overnight hours... And, while there has been a tendency for the winds to pick up in areas west of the Appalachians (especially across the Great Lakes region), the wind has been light enough and the sky clear enough for the temperature to drop into the 20s in many outlying areas...
Even though most of the larger cities will be no lower than the mid 30s at daybreak, most of the typically colder places will be in the 20s... Also, we should at least be keeping an eye out for fog, which has formed in parts of southeastern Pennsylvania... This may become locally dense, or more widespread before 7 a.m. beneath the high pressure system that is already in place...
After 8 or 9 a.m., we do expect a good deal of sunshine today... And, with the wind out of the southwest starting to pick up a bit this afternoon, most temperatures will be in the mid 50s, except near some of the south-facing shores and in some of the higher elevations located well to the north and west of the big cities...
The sky should be mostly clear tonight, and then sun for a while tomorrow will start to fade behind high, thin clouds in the afternoon... We talked a bit yesterday about the next precipitation event in the Eastern Region, which should consist of rain across much of the area on Friday...
The leading edge of some milder air aloft pressing northward along the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday night and early Friday morning may cause some spotty, light precipitation across central Pennsylvania or in western and northern parts of New York State... However, we have chosen to apply a compromise between two of the global models (the European and GFS) when it comes to the timing of this event...
For what it’s worth, the 00z run of the ECMWF prints out about a tenth of an inch of rain for the 6-hour period ending at 7 p.m. on Friday, while the GFS is about six hours faster... After 7 p.m. another 0.05" to 0.10" of rain is expected, so it is probably best to word it as 'occasional rain, especially in the afternoon and at night'...
Because of this adjusted timing, it no longer looks like any sleet or freezing rain is a threat on Friday morning, even for most of those areas located north and west of I-287... And, while the Poconos or the Catskills could see a touch of freezing rain on Friday morning, this could also be negated by clouds arriving soon enough on Thursday night to prevent the temperature from dropping below the freezing mark...
While temperatures tomorrow and on Friday should be no higher than the 40s in most places, it should start to turn milder again over the weekend.
The temperature forecast for Saturday could be the trickiest of the entire forecast period, because even though it should dry out, we may have clouds that will tend to linger for a few hours before the sun comes out from midday onward...
And, we do feel strongly that the southwesterly flow that will be setting up this weekend will be somewhat stronger on Sunday, which would be the primary reason that temperatures would climb into the mid and upper 50s...
It should stay mild early next week, but there could be some rain along the East Coast as a series of waves of low pressure cut up to the west of the Appalachians... It is going to take a considerable amount of time for the ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic and along the Eastern Seaboard to get broken down...
Therefore, while it does appear that it will eventually start to turn colder next week, we should be cautious — and not try to make things 'too cold, too soon'.
Have a good day!!!!
