Good Morning,
As a low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley tonight, it will weaken and a secondary wave will form near the mid Atlantic coast... This feature should bring snow and rain to the Tri-State Area tomorrow, which will change to all snow tomorrow night, lasting into Thursday before ending...
Under a clear sky early today, there's a brisk and chilly northwest wind that should average 8-16 mph with some gusts of up to 25 mph as most folks head out the door... So, once again, it will be a good idea to bundle up as it will "feel like" it's near 20, or even in the teens in some places for a while...
Temperatures today, as we pointed out yesterday, should wind up in the mid 40s in most places... And, with a little less wind this afternoon, it is going to feel better to be outside than it has been during recent days... Well, this obviously is going to be 'deceptive', because things will start to get uglier around here tomorrow, and it looks as if we'll be dealing with some rain and snow tomorrow afternoon that will change completely over to snow tomorrow night — then it will end some time on Thursday...
The end of Thursday's snowfall is an issue that we'll be grappling with for the next day or so — because while the next storm which will be emerging in the mid Atlantic states late tonight should drift slowly to the east tomorrow and then head out to sea on Thursday, there will be what is known as a "Norlun" trough developing in its wake on Thursday over southern New England... This trough (named after the forecaster who had classified it), is an inverted trough of low pressure that is a source of moisture convergence, and it does lead to a prolonged round of precipitation (in this case, snow) which will probably carry over into late on Thursday across southern New England and on parts of Long Island...
But, before we get to that, lets lay some of the ground work for the impending storm in the East... It has yet to begin snowing in Chicago early this morning, but when it does, it will be coming down quite heavily... And, the wave of low pressure that will be causing a swath of heavy snow to extend from Minnesota and the Dakotas all the way to Ohio later today is going to eventually weaken over the Ohio Valley tonight...
Then, the much talked about secondary wave of low pressure is going to begin to develop over Virginia later on tonight... So, as we had pointed out yesterday, while there should be some relatively light and spotty precipitation that will be breaking out tonight in areas near the Mason-Dixon Line, that should begin to 'ramp up' in its intensity late tonight and early tomorrow morning... So, when the Shenandoah and Blue Ridge mountains get hit with more than two feet of snow tonight and tomorrow, this newly developing wave will be the culprit...
The models are showing more of a consensus now that this low pressure system will be moving rather slowly tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, and it will be in a position off the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware for a period of more than 12 hours...
This, of course, is NOT GOOD NEWS for the Shore, because as it intensifies and the pressure gradient becomes tighter, there will be some wind gusts late on Wednesday and Wednesday night which will be as high as 50 or 55 mph, seas which will average 8-14 feet and there will be both some beach erosion as well as some coastal flooding during the times of high tide...
While seas and winds will also batter Long Island and southern New England, too — it looks like the absolute worst wind and wave conditions will occur in extreme South Jersey and along the Delmarva Peninsula...
The European is falling more into line with some of the recent solutions of the G.F.S. — and an "average" value for quantitative precipitation in City and in most of its adjacent suburbs would imply that there will be between 0.50" and 0.75" of liquid... Some of that will be in the form of rain, but it should be mostly in the form of some heavy, wet snow from Wednesday night into Thursday...
At this juncture, since we're predicting the temperature in the City to be no lower than the mid 30s on Wednesday night, it looks like the snow will not be able to stick to most paved surfaces... However, with here probably being more moisture churned out on Long Island and in Connecticut, and this snow lasting into Thursday, we can certainly see how Suffolk County and parts of southern Connecticut may get between 4 and 6 inches of wet snow... As the low pressure system heads out to sea on Thursday, and the trough left behind in its wake gradually weakens, we will be left with plenty of clouds and a gradually
diminishing wind — some of the wind gusts on Wednesday night and early Thursday may exceed 40 mph...
Friday, a vigorous impulse of jet stream energy is being forecasted by the European to dive southeastward out of Canada... So, we've inserted the mention of a shower of rain or snow... It should be quieter over the weekend... Lots of details to come, and several more to be 'ironed out' over the next 36 hours...
Have a good day!!!
