A few showers and a thunderstorm or two across the Tri-State Area yesterday, clouds did also manage to break for sunshine across much of the region. Most of this activity was also done before the evening rush hours got underway.
Some of the thunderstorms before 10 a.m. produced heavy rain in northwestern New Jersey (the 72-hour total at Sussex, New Jersey for the period ending early last night was 4.68"), but luckily, this kind of torrential rain wasn't as widespread as we had feared it might be.
Actually, a glance at the regional radar mosaic early this morning is showing some fairly potent thunderstorms in coastal Delaware and near Cape May, New Jersey — it is evidence that the front which caused the shower and thunderstorm activity yesterday hasn't pushed too far to the south of the area. But, the sentiment in our office is that this boundary has push 'far enough' away from the area to allow for a bubble of high pressure to be the key feature in today's weather. Therefore, we can expect no less than partial sunshine. It'll be warm this afternoon, and still moderately humid (which we'll define as "with dewpoints in the 60s, rather than the lower-70s), with most temperatures climbing well into the 80s.
Over the course of the next few days, two more fronts will be moving across the Northeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic states. The first one, which our surface maps show located in eastern parts of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes this morning, is expected to weaken tonight and tomorrow as it approaches the coastal plain.
Therefore, even though we continue to carry a shower and thunderstorm in our forecasts for tomorrow (Friday), it is possible that the activity will be isolated, sort of resembling what happened around here yesterday.
Temperatures will peak in the upper-80s and low-90s tomorrow afternoon. Winds will have a westerly component, and it'll be pretty humid, sustaining the "mid-summer feel."
The second in the series of two fronts will be a more potent one, and it will start to gain some momentum in the Midwest on Friday night. The consensus that has been reached between last night's runs of the G.F.S., European and N.A.M. mesoscale model all agree that the bulk of showers and thunderstorms will be holding off until Saturday afternoon in areas that are located both near and to the east of I-95. So, we'll need to emphasize that while Saturday morning may be fairly cloudy, the bulk of our showers and thunderstorms should occur in the afternoon and at night.
We mentioned yesterday morning that there was a little uncertainty about the timing of when these showers and thunderstorms would end — but there has been some consistency showing up in recent runs of the model output that would imply the corridor of showers and thunderstorms end from west to east Sunday afternoon.
At this time, we have more confidence in making the statement that these showers and thunderstorms will be over with by midday on Sunday across eastern portions of Pennsylvania, much of Maryland, Delaware and in western sections of New Jersey. But, they could last well into the afternoon on central and eastern Long Island, as well as across southeastern New England.
Just how "progressive" this front is when it marches across the region will ultimately hold the key in determining how long the threat of some rain will last — but we're being "cautiously optimistic" now that Sunday afternoon will bring some sunshine, and some drier air will be following on the heels of this front late on Sunday and Sunday night.
Have a good day!