Rain Today and Then Back to Big Cold!

Good Morning,

Although yesterday wasn't nearly as windy as Sunday was, it was still cold — even despite plenty of sunshine... Today, the sky is becoming cloudy very early, and we are expecting rain to start breaking out across the Tri-State Area, especially late this morning and early this afternoon...

But, it is worth pointing out that in some areas well north and west of New York City, the rain will start sometime between 9 and 11 a.m. — and when it does, it could manage to freeze on some surfaces at the very onset of precipitation... There is also a possibility that (because of cooling that takes places due to evaporation when the air isn't almost fully saturated) the precipitation could begin as a little sleet or snow, especially in those places located north and west of I-287...

But, the odds do favor that nearly everywhere else, temperatures will be in the lower or middle 40s when the rain arrives, and frozen precipitation will not be any kind of an issue... A couple of fronts (a warm front pressing northward along the coastal plain, followed by a cold front that will be sweeping in from the west late this afternoon) will be generating our rain today and early tonight, which should bring a general 0.10" to 0.25" before ending by around midnight...

The possibility does exist that the rain could mix with some snowflakes before everything comes to an end, but no snow accumulation is anticipated... What WILL HAPPEN is that the wind will begin to start cranking again... While probably not as intense as it was on Sunday, some of the gusts late tonight and during the day tomorrow should be in the 30-35 mph range.... And, when you combine this with the arrival of some colder air, temperatures mostly in the 30s tomorrow will "Feel Like" they're in the 20s — even the teens first thing in the morning!

Thursday is actually a day which we believe will resemble yesterday in many ways: it will not be lacking for sunshine, and it won't be as windy as the previous day was, but it will still be cold with most temperatures failing to get out of the mid 30s...

There'll be a ridge of high pressure located in eastern Canada late this week, which should manage to drive a wedge southward along the Appalachians on Thursday night and Friday... Therefore, even though the global models seem to be suggesting that a round of overrunning precipitation will occur Friday night into early Saturday — this precipitation will probably have to overcome quite a bit of dry air before it gets started...

Temperatures should manage to reach the lower and middle 40s during the upcoming weekend, but the models sure do become more and more 'divergent' with their solutions by Sunday. Last night's 00z run of the European is implying that a wave of low pressure tracking just to the south of the Tri-State Area could bring with it a decent amount of rain, or a mixture of rain and snow during the Saturday night/early Sunday time periods... The G.F.S. hints at this possibility, too... But, it doesn't show nearly as much moisture getting deposited on the area, and it is 12-18 hours slower with its timing... Obviously, we've got our "work cut out for us" in the longer range...

Have a good day!!!