Good Morning,
We're looking at a very weak "clipper" type disturbance early this morning, which has once again brought very light and spotty precipitation to the Tri-State Area overnight... However, one of the trends that we've noticed since about 11 o'clock last night is that there is some freezing drizzle occurring out there, in addition to some flurries and a snow shower...
Therefore, particularly in many of the City's northern and western suburbs, some untreated surfaces could be slick for a while this morning—even if there is NOT a fresh coating of snow!! Typically, in cases like this, elevated roadways, as well as some highway "on and off" ramps may develop a thin layer of ice, so we should stress that folks need to use extra care when traveling early today...
As long as clouds break for some sunshine by midday, we should at least approach 40 degrees this afternoon... Then tonight, as some drier air filters into the region on a light, westerly wind— the sky should turn out clear with most temperatures winding up in the mid 20s, except the teens in some of the coldest suburbs...
Tomorrow will be a somewhat colder day, but with some sun fading behind increasing clouds, the temperature should still manage to reach the mid 30s... Friday's scenario just keeps getting more and more interesting... Last night's 00z run of the European global forecast model is certainly 'leading the charge' when it comes to suggesting there will be a potent winter storm occurring at the tail end of the workweek...
We should first point out that the ridge of high pressure that will be spreading out across eastern Canada late tomorrow and tomorrow night is going to provide the Northeast with a source of dry, and 'fresh' cold air... That being said, even though there may be some precipitation-type mixing occurring late on Thursday night or early Friday morning at the very onset (a blend of rain and snow could happen in the City, while some areas north and west get a touch of snow and ice), the European is most definitely 'bullish' that much of the Tri-State Area will wind up with at least a few inches of snow on Friday afternoon and early Friday night...
Of course, the domestic models (primarily the GFS) have not been 'on board' with this snowy scenario — due in large part to the fact that this model doesn't show the proper 'phasing' occurring between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream... Therefore, the GFS did have the precipitation starting (and ending) more quickly in and around the region... We should not 'run with the solution of just one model' at this point, and we also would probably be best served to point out that the heaviest snowfall amounts (whatever they are) Friday will be focused on northeastern Pennsylvania, much of Upstate New York and central/northern sections of New England...
The storm departs on Saturday, leaving behind a cold and gusty wind... There will be a milder trend developing early next week...
Have a good day!!!
