Good Morning,
The sky overnight has been either partly or mostly cloudy across much of
the Greenwich area, and today will bring intervals of clouds and
sunshine... Dewpoint temperatures during the night have also started
climbing along the coastal plain, since the migration of a high pressure
system into the western Atlantic has caused most surface winds to become
southerly or southeasterly...
Therefore, today will be more humid than the past two across the region,
and most temperatures should be in the middle and upper-80s this
afternoon... We talked at length yesterday about how there isn't very
much of a "trigger" available just yet to cause a few showers and
thunderstorms, and we still aren't expecting any activity to occur today...
But, as we go through the course of the next three days, we're certainly
beginning to see now some key elements starting to come together which
will support the idea that showers and thunderstorms around here can
cause us some big headaches later this week... There's the
potential for strong or severe thunderstorms in areas east of the
Appalachians Friday afternoon into early Friday night... And, depending
upon which global model you believe, there is also a possibility that we
may have to deal with some flooding issues in Greenwich and Fairfield
County from later on Friday or Friday night into Saturday...
The influx of moisture will continue along the Eastern Seaboard during the
next 36 hours, and we'll be watching the "two fronts" that we had talked
about yesterday, too... Moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico and
the Atlantic will continue to flow over a nearly stationary front, which is
located in the Carolinas early this morning... And, the second front, or a
boundary that is sliding across the Great Lakes right now, is expected to
slow down quite a bit tomorrow, tomorrow night and early Friday as it
reaches the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states...
Therefore, the northern front is going to be the focal point of a couple of
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, some of which will creep into the
Tri-State, CT area tomorrow afternoon or early tomorrow night...
Friday, this very slow-moving front is going to have a wave of low
pressure developing along it... This feature will be located tomorrow
afternoon in southern Illinois, and it will be in the Ohio Valley by daybreak
on Friday... This body of low pressure will be a very important role-player
by the end of the workweek, because it will be providing some
additional lifting of very warm and moist air in the mid-Atlantic states...
This will also be enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and
Saturday in various parts of Eastern CT... At
this juncture, it looks as if most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia,
Delaware and New Jersey will get the roughest weather on Friday/early
Friday night -- and this includes some strong or severe thunderstorms...
Meanwhile, the placement of the heaviest rain will probably be squarely
focused on much of New York and New England, the Greenwich, Fairfield
County area very late on Friday, Friday night and early Saturday...
Some of the specific details will be ironed out over the next couple of
days, but we should be preparing for storms on Friday in the Greenwich
area that could bring strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, and
pockets of rain on Friday or Saturday could be heavy enough to cause
flooding...
The axis of a very strong upper-level low pressure trough located in the
Great Lakes late this week is expected to start to pivot to the north and
east later on Friday, Friday night and Saturday...
Therefore, with that surface wave emerging and tracking eastward Friday
night before heading out to sea on Saturday afternoon, preliminary
indications are that we could have a widespread distribution of 1-2 inches
of rain around Fairfield County, with some locally heavier amounts in
excess of 3 inches possible, especially near some of the higher terrain
(where there is someadditional lifting of the very moist air that takes
place).
Have a good day!!!
