Summertime, Then Springtime Together This Week!

Good Morning,

The weekend provided much of the Eastern region with fairly decent weather… Saturday was, without question, a gorgeous day… Yesterday, there were a few 'small glitches', one of which was a broken line of showers that appeared early yesterday morning -- it moved out of the central Appalachians and through east-central Pennsylvania, central New Jersey and some of both New York and Philadelphia's suburbs between the hours of 6 and 11 a.m.But, the amount of rain these showers produced was very scant, only leaving behind a trace (less than 0.01") in most rain gauges…

Elsewhere, a stronger line of showers and thunderstorms emerged in the Lower Susquehanna River Valley later in the day, and these passed within 20 miles of Philadelphia between 6 and 9 p.m. while hitting the beaches in Delaware and extreme South Jersey rather hard before rolling out to sea last evening… So, depending upon whom you talk to, yesterday's weather was either "a little more disappointing when compared with Saturday", or there was a brief episode of rain that interrupted an otherwise decent Father's Day… But all in all, after a series of widespread,heavy rain events that have happened in the Northeast and mid Atlantic states over the past ten days -- yesterday was just a mere "bump in the road"…

And, while we do anticipate that today and tomorrow will bring us few showers and a thunderstorm or two, these aren't expected to produce rain that is widespread, nor will it be heavy enough to cause any serious flooding problems… The radar early this morning is showing a couple of showers across central and southern Virginia… These radar echoes, while rather weak as of this writing, are and indicator that there's a front which has managed to limp into a place located both south of D.C. and north of Richmond, VA as of 6 a.m. EDT… The satellite loop is also indicating that there are lots of high, thin cirrus clouds which are spreading out across the mid Atlantic region early today…Conversely, the sky is relatively clear much farther to the north (for argument's sake, generally north of I-80)… So wehave to address these clouds today across much of southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia and in South Jersey… But north of this aforementioned area, it should be sunnier this morning BEFORE some clouds start to billow up this afternoon…

Temperatures, for the most part, will be in the lower and middle 80s today, and the shower and thunderstorm activity which flares up this afternoon and this evening should only bring up to a tenth of an inch of rain,on average…

Even in some of the isolated heavier downpours, amounts will be generally less than half an inch,because that downpour will only last an average of 3-5 minutes…In addition to the front located on our surface maps that is near the Virginia/North Carolina border early this morning,there's another one located in the Great Lakes region… That one is poised to press to the south and east tonight and tomorrow, and it'll be the 'catalyst' for a somewhat more widespread distribution of showers and thunderstorms around here tomorrow…

We're confronted with somewhat of a challenge tomorrow when it comes to forecasting maximum temperatures, because the GFS (primary form of medium-range/domestic model guidance) is running an average of 3-5 degrees HIGHER than the N.A.M./W.R.F. (a mesoscale model) or the European global model… All do suggest that daytime temperatures will reach the 80s.. But, variables such as the amount of cloud cover and the time of day when a shower or thunderstorm will occur is probably go a long way in determining exactly who winds up near 85 degrees, and who will be closer to 88 in the afternoon… Either way, the probability of precipitation tomorrow will be about 40 percent in many places, an uptick from today's 20-30 percent…

There's some GREAT NEWS in store for us during the midweek period: as this front dropping out of the north and west late tomorrow and tomorrow night pushes southward, it will make way for a ridge of high pressure to build down from the north… So,we should experience a fair amount of sunshine and dry weather on both Wednesday and Thursday… At this juncture, we'll also be cautiously optimistic about Friday, too… At some point, moisture on the back side of the high pressure system will be getting pulled northward later this week… This influx of moisture could help fuel a few showers and thunderstorms Friday, Friday night and on Saturday, but it seems that those areas that will be impacted first will be closer to the spine of the Appalachians (central and western New York, Pennsylvania, etc.)

Have a good day!!!