Do the Math: Low Election Turnout Shows Strength of Greenwich GOP Base and Uniqueness of Ed Board Race

Two numbers tell the tale of the 2011 municipal election in Greenwich: 35% the level of voter turnout and 6,191 the vote total of the lowest ranked Republican on the BET. What those numbers tell me is that the automatic Republican vote in a 35% turnout election is 6,191 votes, that is what a generic Republican candidate on the first page of the ballot can expect to receive in votes from the Republican faithful. The equivalent Democratic automatic vote is 3,457 using the same methodology.

In other words, every Republican candidate had an advantage of 2,734 in base votes. Peter Tesei ran ahead of his fellow Republicans at 9,101 votes, an improvement of 285 votes over his 2009 total. John Blankley at 3,293 ran behind his running mate Drew Marzullo, who had 4,818 votes, less than the 4,922 he received in 2009. David Theis at 7,284 also ran behind his total of 7,909 in 2009. Drew ran ahead of the Democratic base number and John ran behind, suggesting there was bullet voting for Drew to keep him on the Board of Selectman.

The closest race of the day was for Tax Collector won by Tod Ladonia with 6,229 votes to 5,601 to Bill Grad. Tod improved slightly by 23 votes from his 2009 vote total of 6,206 and ran ahead of the Republican base vote by 38 votes. Bill ran well ahead of the Democratic base vote by 2,144 and surpassed his 2009 vote total of 4,921 by 681 votes but was not able to bring all those who voted for Rick Novakowski in 2009, 1,658 votes, to vote for him this time. Bill won five districts and held close in four others, but was soundly defeated in Districts 9, 10 and 11, which turned out strongly for Republican candidates.

The school board race was also interesting. Barbara O'Neill and Peter von Braun at 8,898 and 7,877 votes respectively, ran well ahead of the Republican base suggesting many cross-over votes. The Democratic school board candidates, Jennifer Dayton and Adriana Ospina at 6,269 and 6,124 respectively, ran well ahead of the Democratic base,which suggests they also benefited from the campaign against Marianna Ponns-Cohen at 4,331 votes and Anna Saras Povinelli at 5,119 votes, both of whom performed below the Republican base vote.

Apparently, many voters used all four of their votes for Board of Education to send a message that civility is prized among board members.

On election night, Jim Campbell, RTC Chairman, spun the numbers, including the low turnout, as a mandate for continuing Republican leadership. I agree with him to this extent, unless there is some overriding issue that stirs the voters to break their voting habits by deviating from the party line or for the 65 percent who do not vote to turn out and vote, the Board of Selectmen will remain in Republican control.

However, thanks to the foresight of our town fathers (and mothers) the Board of Estimate and Taxation and the Board of Education will remain balanced between the two parties so neither party may dominate the process and consensus and collegiality shall carry the day. Or to quote Tiny Tim: "God bless us, everyone."