It is hard to imagine that the United States government could be shutdown by 30-40 Congressmen, a decided minority in the 435 member legislative body, but that seems to be what happened. The so-called Tea Party Caucus convinced the House Republican leadership to use the defunding of the Affordable Care Act, which both sides now refer to as Obamacare, as an excuse to shut down the federal government. Taking advantage of the Hastert Rule under which a Republican Speaker of the House will not bring a bill on the house floor without the support of a majority of the House Republicans they have dictated the strategy of denying temporary funding for keeping the government open to gain leverage over the U.S. Senate and the President.
The intransigent opposition to Obamacare has manifested in repeated votes to repeal the law. The latest strategy marries this obsession with the crisis creation tactic that has proven very successful in the budget battles that have been a constant since the Republican took control of the House after the 2010 election.
They succeeded in slashing the budget through the sequester which was the "unthinkable" measure that was supposed to end in a grand bargain to reduce the deficit before the 2012 election. They received concessions for agreeing to lift the debt ceiling the last two times debts wracked up by previous congressional spending threatened to exceed the debt limit. Then the "financial cliff" deal resulted in making permanent most of the Bush tax cuts.
After the Senate passed a budget that was much higher than the House-passed Ryan budget the House leadership refused to go to conference committee because they were content to let funding remain at sequester levels. Given their repeated refusal to confer over the budget the Republican leadership's complaint that the Democrats would not confer over the temporary spending resolution rings hollow. The irony is that the temporary spending resolution only funds the federal budget at sequester levels which are much lower than the Senate budget and close to Ryan budget, albeit without slashing the food stamp program voted for by House Republicans. The Tea Party coalition is succeeding in its avowed goal to shrink the government.
However, the radical right is losing the public relations war as public opinion is strongly tilting against the Republicans who are being blamed for the shutdown. There are also signs of a fissure in the Republican Caucus as twenty-one moderate Republicans have publicly announced the willingness to vote for a "clean" funding resolution if it came to a vote on the House floor. Their votes along with all 200 Democratic votes would constitute a majority to keep the government funded at sequester levels for another six weeks. The Speaker can prevent any vote and he has promised to not call for a vote without a concession.
Nancy Pelosi, the Minority Leader, thinks she has another way to force a vote through a parliamentary maneuver called a discharge petition, but this requires a majority of members to sign on which means the 200 Democrats plus 18 Republicans, and there are doubts that the moderates are ready to buck the leadership. There have been repeated opportunities for Republican moderates to buck the leadership and the moderates votes for unconditional funding have failed to materialize; the last time there was a vote, only 2 of 25 moderates, voted to end the shutdown in caucus. The pressure is on but so far the Republicans have held-fast to both their refusal to fund the government without condition and their refusal to lift the debt ceiling without concessions.
There are signs that the Speaker is weakening. He apparently told his caucus he would not permit a default over the debt ceiling. The House also voted to restore pay for furloughed federal workers. House leaders have complained bitterly about the refusal of Democrats to negotiate.
In my view that means the President's refusal to negotiate about the temporary funding resolution and the debt ceiling is working. Both sides are maneuvering for the 2014 elections. Meanwhile John Boehner is maneuvering to keep his speakership which so far requires currying favor with the Tea Party.
BREAKING NEWS The New York Times today has a fascinating article about the wealthy right-wingers behind the de-funding strategy that resulted in the government shutdown, including the Koch Brothers, former Senator Jim DeMint now head of the Heritage Foundation and Edwin Meese III, Reagan's Attorney General who resigned in disgrace. The article explains that their over $ 300,000 million dollar campaigns have propped up the freshman congressman from North Carolina and the freshman Senator from Texas who ostensibly lead those who have implemented their "scorched earth tactics" against Obamacare, anathema to these plutocrats, to steal a phrase from Hillary Clinton's recent speech at Hamilton College. This is more evidence that the Tea Party movement is not a true grassroots movement but "astroturf" funded and manipulated by wealthy back room fixers.
