After the holidays we have 6 open houses this week. You can see the interactive map here and the list of open houses below. You can find instructions on using the interactive map here.
December Real Estate Sales in Greenwich Set Record
December 2012 was a month to remember in Greenwich real estate. The 68 sales reported so far are an all time record and 89% higher than December 2011. (For the latest real estate transactions, please click here.)
Inventory Very Low and Extremely Low Under $1 million
The inventory as of 1/3/13 is down to only 399 single-family homes. Inventory hasn't been this low since before the early part of the last decade. This combination of extraordinarily high sales at year-end and low inventory make for the lowest months of supply we have seen all year.
Inventory Shortages Driving Bidding Wars
In many areas of town and many price ranges we have very little to show people. Under $1 million, we have only a couple of months supply. My Greenwich listing for $895,000 had eight bidders within five days and went to executed contract with an all cash offer in two more days in early December.
Right now we only have 8.8 months of supply for the entire market. Even the $5 - 10 million price range is down to 20.9 months of supply from over 40 months of supply during the first half of 2012.
We Need Listings
If you are thinking about selling your home call me, Rob Pulitano or Jared Randall at 203-869-0500. Surprisingly, the dead of winter this year will be a better time to put your house on the market than the March spring market. The buyers are out there so why compete against the flood of spring market listings.
January 2013 Expected to be a Poor Month for Real Estate Sales in Greenwich
When you add in pending sales contract and offers, every price range, except for over $10 million, months of pending supply is even lower than supply based just on sales. However, this decline is exaggerated by the extraordinarily low inventory that we presently have. We only have 71 pending deals. Some won't close and the others will mostly be spread out over the next 2 - 3 months.
Bad July 2011 Shows Why History Likely to Repeat Itself in January 2013
We had a similar tax driven situation in June 2011. That month we had 114 sales was the highest month ever in Greenwich for sales. The record sales in June 2011 were followed by a well below average 48 sales in July 2011. The June spike was driven by an increase in the Connecticut conveyance tax that kicked in on July 1st. Just as with December 2012 sellers who could close before the tax law change did so resulting in tax driven spikes.
Our average January sales for the last seven years have been 39 homes and we aren't likely to reach this number in January 2013. On the flip side if we can get some more inventory the number of pending contracts should rise. So while closings may drop, the market should be active now that this fiscal cliff problem has been resolved.
$3 - 10 Million Market Most Affected by Fiscal Cliff
If you take our December sales in Greenwich and annualize them you can see the market segments most affected by the fear of the fiscal cliff. The winner for biggest supply change is the $5 - 10 million price range with an amazing 10.7 months drop in months of supply when comparing the whole year sales rate to just the sales rate in December.
Due to Congress' irresponsible delay, sellers could not know what taxes they would actually pay if they delayed selling until 2013, but the reality turned out to be a tax savings of 8.8% on their gain. This works out to be $88,000 on a million dollars of gain.
Days on Market - Very Long and Very Short
You only have to look at the days on market to see how the fiscal cliff motivated some sellers in the $5 - 10 million price range. Three of the houses that sold in December had been on the market for more than two years. These house sold for an average of 78% of their original list price.
At the other end three houses went to contract in less than a month and sold for 94% of their list price including one that went for $105,000 over list price as sellers got their houses on the market quickly and priced to sell before 2013.
2013 Greenwich, CT Real Estate Outlook
Clearly at all price levels there are buyers out there for houses that are priced right. People also have spent four years paying down debt and accumulating savings and are ready to move. The only thing the U.S. real estate market has to fear is Congress itself. If the 113th Congress actually solves problems rather than creates them like the 112th Congress we should have a very good year for real estate in Greenwich and the U.S.
OPEN HOUSE LIST FOR SUNDAY, JAN. 6, 2013 – GREENWICH, CT
207 Sheephill Rd.
Shore & Country
Prefabulous + Almost Off the Grid Book Signing Sunday 11 am - 12:30
If you want to find out the state of the art in pre-fab and environmental sound housing stop by Terrain at 561 Post Road East in Westport. Sherri Koones, a Greenwich resident, and one of the top experts on pre-fabricated houses will be there signing her new book, Prefabulous + Almost Off the Grid. Pre-fabs today don't look anything like what you probably think of as pre-fabs, they are gorgeous and you see them throughout Greenwich if you know where to look. Sherri is the person to talk to; she is the author of 6 books on the subject.
And for a complete listing of all of the recent real estate sales in Greenwich, please click here.