Good Morning,
The regional radar mosaic early this morning showed rain slowly pressing northward along the mid-Atlantic coast... We're keenly aware of two things: 1.) There'll be a 'razor sharp' edge to this rain this morning, with coastal communities getting soaked for a few hours, while many northern and western suburbs won't see a drop, and 2.) The confidence in many forecasts that are going out beyond Monday is low, since there will be a back door cold front slipping out of the north early next week... Depending upon which model you believe, the potential does exist for temperatures to soar to levels as high as the 70s on Tuesday across much of the Tri-State Area, but these could then be no higher than the mid 50s on Wednesday... The European global forecast model is the form of guidance that insists this warm surge will occur during the early stages of next week, but the domestic models do not...
Find out what's happening in Greenwichwith free, real-time updates from Patch.
Back to today, it is fairly certain that the entire area will be cloudy for this morning... But, the very dry air that has been provided by a high pressure system in the Northeast is not going to budge without a fight... Actually, when rain started around Baltimore close to midnight, the precipitation underwent so much evaporative cooling that some sleet pellets mixed in - and we cannot rule out this possibility altogether this morning, especially across parts of central and southern New Jersey, as well as on Long Island... But, since most of the rain will be clinging to the coast and then ending during midday, we're optimistic that clouds will manage to break for some sunshine this afternoon, and there will be a breeze developing...
Even though we were concerned a few days ago about persistent rain and temperatures that may fail to get out of the 40s this afternoon, the 'game has changed'... Therefore, we're going to go with a forecast in the mid and upper 50s and dry conditions will prevail everywhere this afternoon.
Find out what's happening in Greenwichwith free, real-time updates from Patch.
Tonight, it will be dry and chilly with clearing occurring and a diminishing wind... Therefore, mos temperatures will wind up in the 30s, except the upper 20s in some of the typically colder spots...
With so much 'radar watching' needed early today and uncertainty about the longer range, we can at least find comfort in knowing that this weekend's forecast will be relatively straightforward...
There should be an injection of modestly cooler air taking place tomorrow... So even though there ought to be plenty of sunshine, most highs will only be in the lower and middle 50s... Sunday should be milder, and it will reach the lower 60s on some thermometers...
We must allow for a shower on Monday, especially late in the day or at night -- due a vigorous upper air disturbance dropping into the Northeast... But nonetheless, temperatures should be in the lower or middle 60s in several places located away from the coast...
Tuesday has the potential to be a warmer day, and we're obviously showing a little restraint when it comes to predicting temperatures to be in the 60s again... At the same time, Wednesday could be cooler -- depending upon the timing of a back door cold front, and whether or not a series of weak waves / ripples of low pressure moving along it causes some shower activity.
Have a good weekend!
