Good Morning,
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The day is getting off to a relatively clear start... And, the combination of light winds and the clear sky overnight has led to temperatures which varied quite a bit during the predawn hours...
While it is in the 30s across the Five Boroughs and in some adjacent suburbs, some of the typically colder spots are in the mid and upper teens (these coldest spots include parts of the Hudson Valley, northwestern New Jersey and Orange/Sullivan counties in upstate New York)...
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The entire Tri-State Area should see a fair amount of sun today, with temperatures reaching the 40s in most places... In fact, some neighborhood thermometers will probably reach 50 this afternoon... All of this can be attributed to a large ridge of high pressure located in the Eastern Region...
The core of this weather system is located to the south (off the coasts of New Jersey and the mid Atlantic states), so winds today should be mostly out of the west and southwest, but no higher than 8-16 mph this afternoon...
The sky tonight should be relatively clear, and it'll be chilly with most lows in the 30s (but probably as low as the 20s in the coldest spots)...
Tomorrow should be even milder with a blend of sun and clouds, and most temperatures should reach the lower or middle 50s... We're still thinking that as the axis of this high pressure ridge starts to drift away from the East Coast tomorrow night and on Thursday, the weather around here will be dry...
On our surface weather charts, you may notice a 'back door' style cold front early on Thursday, which will be dipping down from the north early in the day — its 6 a.m. location has it draped across central portions of New York State and New England... As this front presses down from the north on Thursday, most afternoon temperatures will be a bit lower than tomorrow's... But still, with most thermometers in the upper 40s to near 50, we will still be well above the seasonal averages...
As a potent wave of low pressure in the southern Tier of states today and tomorrow starts to make its move on Thursday, the aforementioned boundary should begin to reverse its course (this time, as a 'warm front') late in the day or at night... With that, we can expect thickening clouds, followed by some rain that will begin either late on Thursday night or early Friday morning...
The exact timing of the rain is something that we'll be keeping an eye on — because even though it is almost 72 hours away, temperatures in the boundary layer late on Thursday night and early Friday morning should be mostly in the 30s... You can bet that there will be some areas well north and west of the I-95 corridor that may see a period of sleet or some freezing rain before Friday morning's rush gets underway, and that could give us some headaches for a while before the entire area has plain rain on Friday, with temperatures mostly in the 40s...
Whatever rain there is on Friday should come to an end late in the day or at night, and it should become milder over the weekend... Rain could return to the area late this weekend, or early next week...
Have a good day!
