Redistricting of Greenwich Legislative Districts May Create Upset Opportunities for Greenwich Democrats

Start with this undeniable fact: Greenwich has not elected a Democrat to the State House of Representatives since 1912. This election for the first time in a long time Greenwich Democrats have nominated a full slate of candidates to challenge the Republicans' legislative hegemony.

The redistricting after the 2010 census gerrymandered the 151st district, which the Republicans narrowly retained by a 132 vote margin in 2006, to increase the number of reliably Republican voters and create a "Fortress Freddy" to protect incumbent Fred Camillo, the only Greenwich legislator to address the Redistricting Commission at its hearings last summer. The breakdown of registered voters in 151 is R 5,167, D 3,201, U 4,634 and other 110 out of a total of 13,112,which means the district is 39% R and 24% D. Fred begins the campaign with a registration advantage of 1,966 voters. In a high turnout election this translates to a lot of automatic party line voters for a challenger to overcome. To top it off, Fred's opponent last time Claude Johnson, was redistricted out of the district. Be careful what you wish for, however, redistricting moved David Rafferty, a leader in the Old Greenwich community and the current Democratic candidate, into District 151. David will be a formidable candidate.

The Republican House leadership moved voters from District 150 and 149 into 151 to boost the Republican registration advantage in that district, which reduced the margins in the other districts and made them more competitive. In District 150, which runs along the shore from Byram to Old Greenwich, the current registration is R 4,019, D 3,118, U 4,006 and other 118, out of a total of 11,261 registered voters. District 150 is 36% R and 28% D, a 901 voter advantage for Steve Walko, yet less than half the advantage enjoyed by Camillo. Stephanie Paulmeno of Old Greenwich, Walko's opponent, is from the eastern part of town, some say an advantage over Walko of Byram in this contest for an open seat.

John Blankley, the former Democratic candidate for First Selectman, is running against Livvy Floren, the long-standing incumbent in District 149. This district includes a greater portion of Stamford than before redistricting thus kindling hopes that there will be more persuadable voters than in the past when Livvy easily disposed of opponents. The registration in the Greenwich portion of District 149 explains her electoral strength. Democrats number only 1,925, outnumbered by 3,564 Republicans 40 % to 22%, nearly two to one, with 3,326 unaffiliated out of 8,903 voters. I do not have the Stamford totals but am informed it is roughly 50/50 Democrats to Republicans. In the past, narrow victories by Democrats in Stamford have not been sufficient to withstand the huge registration disparities in backcountry Greenwich.

This will be a high turnout election. The Democratic candidates will pitch their messages to unaffiliated voters in hopes of overcoming the sizable registration advantages. Typically, Republicans campaign to their base and depend on their numbers to ensure victory.

But what of the unaffiliated, you say? After all, they constitute 37% of 149, 36% of 150 and 35% of 151. In 2008, when Greenwich voted for Barack Obama, the voters in 151, after casting their votes for President voted in most districts along party lines. The unaffiliated voted in lower percentages and broke largely the same way as the electorate. The challenge of the loyal opposition will be to break the voting habits of sufficient voters to consider the candidates as individuals rather than merely as the standard bearers of their respective parties.